Greg's Right FIT #415

Quick notes to help you grow your business in less time with less effort. . . sometime next week. 

In this issue: 

- Thoughts on Forecasts
- Being Human
- Random Stuff

Thoughts on Forecasts

• Forecasting is more art than science. We can tilt the field more toward science by using the same sales process language throughout the organization. Definitions help. 
• AI tools, especially LLM models trained to analyze transcripts and emails, will help the accuracy of sales forecasts. For that to happen, the underlying data needs to be accurate. Start structuring it now. 
• Until then, be data informed vs data driven when analyzing and forecasting. A buying decision is far more complex than the tools most of us have available. 
• We humans are great at looking backwards, but bad at forecasting the future. Look at 2 things you must get done to feel successful next year. From experience, what is one obstacle that might keep you from getting them done? Use experience to think up preventative actions to minimize known obstacles. Look back to plan ahead.

Being Human - All things being equal

"Plurality must never be posited without necessity."
– William of Occam, a long time ago

This week I heard a question that set off a "click, whir" response in my brain. You know those responses, the ones that are deep in our subconscious, that pop out just when you need them. This "click, whir" is what I call the "all things being equal" response. 

The question is, what do I say/do when a forecast deal is near the end, and they bring in a competitor who is touting a new feature I haven't heard of, but sounds great? The prospect wants to stop our process and investigate the competitor further. I really need this deal. What would you do? 

It's a good question. It's not an uncommon scenario, especially in long, complex sales cycles. Multiple buyers/influencers are involved, and the closer you are to a deal being signed, the faster the molecules seem to vibrate, attracting new players to the field. No one wants to make a wrong decision. 

My reflexive response, the one that popped out of my head, is to validate the prospect/my champion's idea. I say something like, "this new feature sounds good. Based on everything I know about what you're trying to do, all things being equal, it would be a mistake not to consider it." As I say this I see the questioner wrinkle their nose up, not understanding where I'm going.

After letting agreement hang in the air a minute, I follow up with, "the only way this doesn't make sense, the only way you get burned, is if things aren't equal. This new feature may get you closer to your goal than what we're proposing, in which case you'd be an idiot for not going with them. However, if it doesn't, you're at risk of having to fix it, or start over." After hearing this, the questioner relaxes a little because they can see where I'm going. 

I let the idea work through my champion's head, then offer a solution. "At this point, I think I know as much about the problem as anyone. I'm happy to run through an evaluation of their solution and give you my team's insider information and questions to ask. If things are equal, and their new feature is better for you than what we've proposed, I'll be the first to push you their direction. On the other hand, if there are concerns, I'll point them out so you can make the right decision. Does that sound fair?"

This works if two things are true:

• The seller has spent enough time in opportunity development to understand the problem/goal as much or more than any player involved. 
• The seller is willing to walk away if the competitor's solution is better suited to helping the client. If the seller is making a No answer as valid as a Yes answer. 

That last point is the hardest one. If the only answer we'll accept is Yes, the client is going to detect it. If we're willing to step back and let what's best for the client be our guide, we have a shot. 

If you're confident you want what's best for the client, not just what's best for you/your quota, try "all things being equal." It's good stuff. 

Random Stuff

"A life of frustration is inevitable for any coach whose main enjoyment is winning." – Chuck Noll 

It's that time of year. The leaves are off the trees, daylight shortens, and the air gets crisp. Twinkle lights are strung and the parties are starting. This can mean only one thing. 

A small group of 18-23 year-olds are going to start affecting my mood more than they should. And there's a chance some 24-34 year-olds will chime in before January is done. 

Yes, it's sports season. The Creighton Bluejays (18-23 year olds) and the Denver Broncos (older but younger than my marriage on ave) are doing sports games. 

When they win, I'm unreasonably happy. When they lose, I'm unhappy. It's crazy. I know it's going to happen, and I'm all but powerless to stop it. 

It happens every year. 

I may have a solution. I saw a clip of a Denver Bronco game from Dec. 1983. They were down 19-0 in the fourth quarter and came back to win. I was a gangly early teen at the time, but I remember the game. Watching the highlights kicked some dopamine out of my hypothalamus or substantia nigra or ventral tegmental or wherever it comes from, and I was happy. Unreasonably happy. 

This is my solution. If you need me, I'll be on YouTube from now to April. (when the sun comes out again)