"...the problem is not that we're poor at predicting; the problem may be that [performance is] unpredictable." - Daniel Kahneman on the science of hiring

I am helping a client with a post-mortem examination of a recently departed key employee, when he says, "I think we did everything right with her, but obviously we missed something." I know what he's referring to because they worked hard to make sure this hire was as perfect as it could be. I try not to dismiss his concerns too quickly because it's helpful to wallow in the muck a bit, but future dependent events like hiring will never be an exact science.
Let's revisit the control grid (above) again because hiring executives falls into the upper right. Yes, you, the employer, have control, but they, the candidate/employee, have control too. His team made the best decision they could, knowing what they knew, but things changed.
Human's predictive ability isn't great.
When changes in the business landscape happened, she didn't react as predicted. As we dig deeper, other long-time employees didn't necessarily act as expected either. Digging even deeper, long-time employees interactions with her were even more surprising. Add in that he plucked her from an organization she has a wonderful relationship with, has a spouse and kids and family in the area,. . .I could go on. What I'm getting at is there's a lot of chaos in life and most of it was and is out of his control.
Stuff happens.
The best approach is planning for flexibility. Candidate #2 and #3, where did they come up short? Are we still in touch? Previous candidates and previous employees, where do they stand? Have we kept in touch and nurtured them with our vision of the future? Those activities are in our control. Focus there. When change happens, especially key person, planned flexibility gives your brain some immediate options and feels a little like control.
I'm halfway through a book called "Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most" and it's interesting but even with advances in AI and machine learning, we're not going to predict the future anytime soon. The best advice is still: apply a process to decisions at hand while keeping your eyes on the destination. Make the best decision for now, then make a quick reminder that you're going to need to adjust. Things will be ok.
|