“People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence." – Daniel Kahneman

I got news about a family friend who has passed away and it makes me sad. He was a good man, lived an interesting life, but cancer cut short his time on this big blue marble. It's estimated there have been 100 billion humans on earth over the last 50,000 or so years. Right now I think there are six or seven billion of us stomping around, looking for something to eat, and making plans for what we're going to do tomorrow.
One feature of our kind is we learn from one another. With language, written communication, and now electronic media, we are sharing more than ever. Like this animation of the of Prague's Charles Bridge pillar and vault field being built in the 14th century.

Knowledge passed from generation to generation has brought us humans out of the caves, across the rivers, and into cities. The challenge with all this information, all of this experience, all of this wisdom at our fingertips is it gives us the illusion we know more than we do. Dunning-Kruger effect is what the smart researchers who came before me call it. I know this because I pulled out my pocket tracking device and looked it up.
This is good for me to keep in mind because if they're looking for a bridge builder in a post-apocalyptic world, that video may boost my confidence about being part of the building team, but you don't want me out there. Half the doors in my house don't close all the way. Maybe I should look it up.
RIP, Jim.
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